FX forward rates and hedging costs
Summary
FX forwards lock in gains or losses vs. spot rates, directly impacting returns. Hedging reduces risk but can either enhance or detract from investment performance depending on currency direction.
Investors that use FX forwards to manage risk on foreign investments typically observe that their forward contracts lock in a loss or a gain relative to current spot exchange rates. This loss or gain equates to a drag or enhancement on the overall investment returns which should be factored into deal underwriting.
Consider the example of an investor based in the U.S. investing in Japan, with an intent to liquidate their investment in one year. The investor must buy JPY at the spot exchange rate (let’s assume that it’s 108.79) to make the investment and, to hedge the risk of movements in the spot rate between now and when they want to repatriate their capital, locks in a forward to sell JPY for USD in one year at a forward rate of 105.75. This locks in a USD gain of 2.8%.
This gain is reversed to a loss for Japanese investors investing in the U.S. They would buy USD in the spot market at 108.79 and at the same time sell USD forward at 105.75, locking in a JPY loss of 2.8%. This highlights that hedging not only reduces FX risks but also can enhance or reduce investment returns.
Below are examples of the loss or gain from the perspective of USD, EUR, and GBP investors.
USD capital invested in foreign countries
EUR capital invested in foreign countries
GBP capital invested in foreign countries
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Chatham Hedging Advisors, LLC (CHA) is a subsidiary of Chatham Financial Corp. and provides hedge advisory, accounting and execution services related to swap transactions in the United States. CHA is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a commodity trading advisor and is a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). For further information, please visit cf.com/legal-notices.
Transactions in over-the-counter derivatives have significant risks, including, but not limited to, substantial risk of loss. You should consult your own business, legal, tax and accounting advisers with respect to proposed swap transaction and you should refrain from entering into any swap transaction unless you fully understand the terms and risks of the transaction, including the potential risk of loss. Chatham only provides services to Qualified Eligible Persons (QEP) under CFTC Regulation 4.7. All rights reserved.